SREB Fact Book on Higher Education, 2009

More than half of the population growth in America over the next 20 years is projected to be in the 16 SREB states. By 2028, the SREB states are projected to account for 39 percent of the U.S. population up from less than a third in SREB's early days in the 1950s. The most dramatic increase will be in the Hispanic population.

By 2022, non-white public high school graduates are projected to be the majority of public high school graduates in 10 of the 16 SREB states. Hispanic students are expected to account for 31 percent of the region's projected public high school graduates by 2022, up from 14 percent in 2005. White students, who represented 60 percent in 2005, will account for 43 percent.

The fastest-growing racial and ethnic groups in the United States today generally have had lower education attainment levels. In 2007, 27 percent of white adults ages 25 and older in the SREB states had a bachelor's degree or higher. In contrast, 16 percent of black and 14 percent of Hispanic adults had a bachelor's degree or higher. The good news is that significant progress in attainment rates has occurred since 2000: The ratehas risen1.5 percentage points for white adults, 2.4 percentage points for black adults, and 1.7 percentage points for Hispanic adults.

Will these improvements be sufficient to help today's students improve in education attainment compared with their parents' generation? In 2006, the United States ranked as the second-highest nation internationally in the percentage of 25- to 34-year-olds with a bachelor's degree or higher. In addition, the United States was the top performer among 45- to 54-year-olds. However, among the nations with the highest attainment levels, the United States was the only one in which the rate for the younger adults was not markedly higher than the rate for the older adults.

College participation gaps remain between student groups, but enrollment and graduation trends are promising. Keeping college affordable will be a major factor in removing participation and completion gaps.

The college-going rate of Hispanic 18- to 24-year-olds (27 percent) lagged behind the rates for black students (33 percent) and white students (43 percent) in the United States in 2007.

But overall college enrollment and graduation trends are promising. Enrollment growth from 1997 to 2007 was led by women and minority students. Women accounted for 63 percent of college enrollment growth in the SREB region and 66 percent of the total increase in bachelor's degrees in that decade. The enrollment of black students in the region rose 49 percent, to a total of 1.1 million a rate of increase much greater than the 30 percent rate for all students. The number of Hispanic students rose 72 percent in the region to 611,900 over the period.

College affordability increasingly challenges students from middle- and lower-income families, however. Students in SREB states, on average, pay less to attend college than their peers nationwide, although the gap narrowed significantly from 1998 to 2008. Tuition and fee levels at public four-year institutions in the SREB region by 2008 reached 91 percent of the national average up from 78 percent a decade before. On the other hand, median household income in the SREB region dropped from 90 percent of the national level in 1997 to 86 percent of the national level in 2007. Thus, families in SREB states have relatively fewer resources for college expenses.

The portion of annual family income needed for a student to attend a public university for one year rose significantly for students from middle- and lower-income households in recent years. Students from middle-income families ($50,000 average annual income) used the equivalent of 22 percent of income in 1998 to pay for one year of tuition, fees, room and board. The costs climbed to 30 percent of family income by 2008. For students from families in the lowest fifth of incomes ($11,600 average annual income), one year at a public university in 2008 cost the equivalent of 131 percent of annual income up from 93 percent in 1998.

Recent funding trends and the 2009 economic downturn will make it increasingly difficult to hold back tuition increases. Tuition and fee revenues continue to rise faster than state and local appropriations. State appropriations for the SREB region's public four-year colleges and universities increased 32 percent or $4 billion from 2003 to2008, and tuition and fee revenues went up 66 percent or $5.2 billion. During the same period at public two-year colleges, state and local appropriations rose by 37 percent or $2 billion, and tuition and fee revenues went up 54 percent or $1.3 billion.